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Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:03 UTC · 15 NovMKD 56%Draw 22%NCO 21%
Expected goals · MKD 2.0 · NCO 1.2 · 3.2 total
MKD's attack (1.44x the league average) against NCO's defence (0.93x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MKD's win chance, the blue ones for NCO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MKD goals | NCO 0 | NCO 1 | NCO 2 | NCO 3 | NCO 4 | NCO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKD 0 | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MKD 1 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MKD 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MKD 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MKD 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MKD 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MKD 56.5% · Draw 22.4% · NCO 21.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Milton Keynes Dons should control this — 56% win probability and 1.9 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Milton Keynes Dons scoring 1.9/game at home, Notts County scoring 1.2/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MKD
3-1-4-2NCO
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.562%
OVER 3.540%
BTTS61%
MKD CLEAN SHEET31%
NCO CLEAN SHEET13%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MKD
NCO
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MKD
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1NCO
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
MKD
1.88
LEAGUE1.36
NCO
1.24
MKD scores +0.64 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MKD
1.46
LEAGUE1.36
NCO
1.16
NCO concedes 0.30 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MKD
9th
Mid-table on 21 points.
NCO
18th
Hovering above relegation on 14 points.
MKD sit 9 places higher in the table