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Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 00:23 UTC · 11 NovMNF 46%Draw 26%MKD 28%
Expected goals · MNF 1.6 · MKD 1.2 · 2.8 total
MNF's attack (1.12x the league average) against MKD's defence (0.97x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MNF's win chance, the blue ones for MKD's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MNF goals | MKD 0 | MKD 1 | MKD 2 | MKD 3 | MKD 4 | MKD 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNF 0 | 7% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MNF 1 | 9% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| MNF 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MNF 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MNF 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MNF 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MNF 45.5% · Draw 26.0% · MKD 28.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Mansfield Town have the edge at 46% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Mansfield Town's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.5/game there, Milton Keynes Dons concede 1.5/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MNF
3-1-4-2MKD
3-1-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Mansfield Town
No absences reported.
Milton Keynes Dons
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.578%
OVER 2.554%
OVER 3.531%
BTTS57%
MNF CLEAN SHEET29%
MKD CLEAN SHEET20%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MNF
MKD
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MNF
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1MKD
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
MNF
1.52
LEAGUE1.36
MKD
1.88
MKD scores +0.36 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MNF
1.29
LEAGUE1.36
MKD
1.46
MNF concedes 0.17 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MNF
12th
Mid-table on 19 points.
MKD
9th
Mid-table on 21 points.
MKD sit 3 places higher in the table
