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Luton Town vs Cambridge United
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 04:14 UTC · 12 NovLTN 54%Draw 25%CAM 21%
Expected goals · LTN 1.7 · CAM 1.0 · 2.7 total
LTN's attack (1.11x the league average) against CAM's defence (1.04x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LTN's win chance, the blue ones for CAM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LTN goals | CAM 0 | CAM 1 | CAM 2 | CAM 3 | CAM 4 | CAM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTN 0 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LTN 1 | 10% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| LTN 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| LTN 3 | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LTN 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LTN 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LTN 53.6% · Draw 25.0% · CAM 21.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Luton Town have the edge at 54% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.7 vs 1.0 gives Luton Town the edge but leaves room for Cambridge United to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
Luton Town
No absences reported.
Cambridge United
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS53%
LTN CLEAN SHEET36%
CAM CLEAN SHEET17%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LTN
CAM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LTN
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0CAM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–3 to Leyton Orient last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
LTN
1.74
LEAGUE1.36
CAM
1.41
LTN scores +0.33 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LTN
1.45
LEAGUE1.36
CAM
1.44
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LTN
4th
In the promotion play-off places on 24 points.
CAM
10th
Mid-table on 21 points.
LTN sit 6 places higher in the table
