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Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 08:33 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
POR 43%Draw 23%DAL 34%
Expected goals · POR 2.0 · DAL 1.7 · 3.7 total
POR's attack (1.15x the league average) against DAL's defence (1.01x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for POR's win chance, the blue ones for DAL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| POR goals | DAL 0 | DAL 1 | DAL 2 | DAL 3 | DAL 4 | DAL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR 0 | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| POR 1 | 4% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| POR 2 | 5% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| POR 3 | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| POR 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| POR 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
POR 43.3% · Draw 22.6% · DAL 34.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Portland Timbers have the edge at 43% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 36% of outcomes — 1-1 at 9% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
Portland Timbers
Leg Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Shoulder Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Back Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Concussion · Expected back 30 Nov
FC Dallas
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.589%
OVER 2.571%
OVER 3.550%
BTTS71%
POR CLEAN SHEET18%
DAL CLEAN SHEET14%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
POR
DAL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
POR
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0DAL
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.49SCORED · PER 90
POR
1.66
LEAGUE1.49
DAL
1.68
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
POR
1.70
LEAGUE1.49
DAL
1.51
DAL concedes 0.19 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
POR
14th
On 46 points.
DAL
5th
On 58 points.
DAL sit 9 places higher in the table
