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Manchester City vs Fulham
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:54 UTC · 8 NovMCI 60%Draw 23%FUL 17%
Expected goals · MCI 1.9 · FUL 0.9 · 2.8 total
MCI's attack (1.41x the league average) against FUL's defence (0.85x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.0.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MCI's win chance, the blue ones for FUL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MCI goals | FUL 0 | FUL 1 | FUL 2 | FUL 3 | FUL 4 | FUL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI 0 | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MCI 1 | 10% | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MCI 2 | 11% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MCI 3 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MCI 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MCI 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MCI 59.7% · Draw 23.0% · FUL 17.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Manchester City should control this — 60% win probability and 2.0 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.9 vs 0.9 leaves little room for Fulham to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MCI
4-2-3-1FUL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Manchester City
Suspended · Could return, due 17 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Leg Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Fulham
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.579%
OVER 2.555%
OVER 3.532%
BTTS53%
MCI CLEAN SHEET39%
FUL CLEAN SHEET15%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MCI
FUL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MCI
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Nottingham Forest last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3FUL
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
MCI
2.04
LEAGUE1.46
FUL
1.22
MCI scores +0.82 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MCI
1.08
LEAGUE1.46
FUL
1.28
MCI concedes 0.20 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MCI
3rd
In the Champions League places on 21 points.
FUL
15th
Hovering above relegation on 10 points.
MCI sit 12 places higher in the table
