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Heart of Midlothian vs Celtic
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 13:22 UTC · 15 NovHOM 30%Draw 22%CEL 47%
Expected goals · HOM 1.6 · CEL 2.0 · 3.6 total
CEL's attack (1.46x the league average) against HOM's defence (1.13x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for HOM's win chance, the blue ones for CEL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| HOM goals | CEL 0 | CEL 1 | CEL 2 | CEL 3 | CEL 4 | CEL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOM 0 | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| HOM 1 | 4% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| HOM 2 | 3% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| HOM 3 | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| HOM 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| HOM 5 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
HOM 30.4% · Draw 22.3% · CEL 47.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Celtic have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 35% of outcomes — 1-1 at 9% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
Heart of Midlothian
Concussion · Could return, due 15 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Ankle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Shin Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Achilles Tendon Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Surgery · Expected back 10 Jan
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Celtic
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Ankle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.589%
OVER 2.571%
OVER 3.550%
BTTS70%
HOM CLEAN SHEET13%
CEL CLEAN SHEET20%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
HOM
CEL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
HOM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 2–5 to Falkirk last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2CEL
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.38SCORED · PER 90
HOM
2.16
LEAGUE1.38
CEL
2.14
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
HOM
1.93
LEAGUE1.38
CEL
0.80
CEL concedes 1.13 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
HOM
4th
On 20 points.
CEL
1st
Leading the table on 31 points.
CEL sit 3 places higher in the table
