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Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:58 UTC · 8 NovKIL 30%Draw 25%ABE 45%
Expected goals · KIL 1.4 · ABE 1.7 · 3.1 total
ABE's attack (0.92x, below the league average) against KIL's defence (1.51x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for KIL's win chance, the blue ones for ABE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| KIL goals | ABE 0 | ABE 1 | ABE 2 | ABE 3 | ABE 4 | ABE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KIL 0 | 5% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| KIL 1 | 5% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| KIL 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| KIL 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| KIL 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KIL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
KIL 30.2% · Draw 24.6% · ABE 45.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Aberdeen have the edge at 45% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 37% of outcomes — 1-1 at 11% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
KIL
4-2-3-1ABE
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Aberdeen
Foot Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Tendon Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Thigh Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.583%
OVER 2.561%
OVER 3.538%
BTTS63%
KIL CLEAN SHEET17%
ABE CLEAN SHEET25%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
KIL
ABE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
KIL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Celtic last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3ABE
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–4 to Hibernian last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.38SCORED · PER 90
KIL
0.99
LEAGUE1.38
ABE
1.00
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
KIL
2.19
LEAGUE1.38
ABE
1.54
ABE concedes 0.65 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
KIL
12th
On 9 points.
ABE
11th
On 11 points.
ABE sit 1 place higher in the table