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Dundee vs Heart of Midlothian
21 Nov · 17:45 UTC
The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 08:45 UTC · 8 NovDUN 50%Draw 23%HOM 27%
Expected goals · DUN 2.0 · HOM 1.4 · 3.4 total
DUN's attack (1.09x the league average) against HOM's defence (1.22x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for DUN's win chance, the blue ones for HOM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| DUN goals | HOM 0 | HOM 1 | HOM 2 | HOM 3 | HOM 4 | HOM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUN 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| DUN 1 | 6% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| DUN 2 | 7% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| DUN 3 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| DUN 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| DUN 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
DUN 50.5% · Draw 22.8% · HOM 26.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Dundee have the edge at 50% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 36% of outcomes — 1-1 at 10% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
DUN
4-4-2HOM
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Heart of Midlothian
Concussion · Could return, due 15 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Ankle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Shin Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Achilles Tendon Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Surgery · Expected back 10 Jan
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.586%
OVER 2.566%
OVER 3.544%
BTTS66%
DUN CLEAN SHEET24%
HOM CLEAN SHEET14%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
DUN
HOM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
DUN
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to ST Johnstone last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2HOM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 2–5 to Falkirk last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.38SCORED · PER 90
DUN
1.52
LEAGUE1.38
HOM
2.16
HOM scores +0.64 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
DUN
1.29
LEAGUE1.38
HOM
1.93
DUN concedes 0.64 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
DUN
5th
On 17 points.
HOM
4th
On 20 points.
HOM sit 1 place higher in the table