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Ceuta vs Almería
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 11:18 UTC · 12 NovCEU 24%Draw 26%ALM 50%
Expected goals · CEU 1.1 · ALM 1.6 · 2.7 total
ALM's attack (1.14x the league average) against CEU's defence (1.28x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CEU's win chance, the blue ones for ALM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CEU goals | ALM 0 | ALM 1 | ALM 2 | ALM 3 | ALM 4 | ALM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEU 0 | 7% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| CEU 1 | 6% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| CEU 2 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| CEU 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CEU 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CEU 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CEU 24.3% · Draw 26.0% · ALM 49.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Almería have the edge at 50% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 38% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
Ceuta are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · CEU5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CEU
4-3-3ALM
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Almería
Ankle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.576%
OVER 2.551%
OVER 3.529%
BTTS54%
CEU CLEAN SHEET19%
ALM CLEAN SHEET34%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CEU
ALM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CEU
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–3 to Cordoba last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5ALM
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
CEU
1.06
LEAGUE1.29
ALM
1.80
ALM scores +0.74 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CEU
1.84
LEAGUE1.29
ALM
1.21
ALM concedes 0.63 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
CEU
22nd
In the relegation zone on 5 points.
ALM
1st
Leading the table on 32 points.
ALM sit 21 places higher in the table