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Como vs Juventus
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 13:05 UTC · 15 NovCOM 45%Draw 30%JUV 25%
Expected goals · COM 1.3 · JUV 0.9 · 2.2 total
COM's attack (1.17x the league average) against JUV's defence (0.80x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for COM's win chance, the blue ones for JUV's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| COM goals | JUV 0 | JUV 1 | JUV 2 | JUV 3 | JUV 4 | JUV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COM 0 | 12% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 1 | 13% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
COM 45.5% · Draw 29.6% · JUV 24.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Como have the edge at 45% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Como are favoured but the draw at 30% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
Como
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Juventus
Suspended · Could return, due 17 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Broken Foot · Expected back 10 Dec
Knee Surgery · Expected back 20 Jan
Club decision · Expected back 28 Jan
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 31 Mar
Coach decision · Expected back 31 May
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.566%
OVER 2.539%
OVER 3.519%
BTTS45%
COM CLEAN SHEET40%
JUV CLEAN SHEET27%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
COM
JUV
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
COM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Inter last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1JUV
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
COM
1.63
LEAGUE1.31
JUV
1.50
COM scores +0.13 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
COM
0.88
LEAGUE1.31
JUV
0.98
COM concedes 0.10 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
COM
5th
In the Europa League place on 23 points.
JUV
7th
Mid-table on 18 points.
COM sit 2 places higher in the table
