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Udinese vs Fiorentina
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:07 UTC · 15 NovUDI 26%Draw 25%FIO 50%
Expected goals · UDI 1.2 · FIO 1.8 · 3.0 total
FIO's attack (1.13x the league average) against UDI's defence (1.30x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for UDI's win chance, the blue ones for FIO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| UDI goals | FIO 0 | FIO 1 | FIO 2 | FIO 3 | FIO 4 | FIO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDI 0 | 6% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| UDI 1 | 5% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| UDI 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| UDI 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| UDI 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UDI 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
UDI 25.6% · Draw 24.6% · FIO 49.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Fiorentina have the edge at 50% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Fiorentina's away advantage is the separator — they score 1.4/game there, Udinese concede 1.6/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
Udinese
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Ankle Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
Fiorentina
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.581%
OVER 2.558%
OVER 3.535%
BTTS59%
UDI CLEAN SHEET17%
FIO CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
UDI
FIO
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
UDI
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Venezia last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4FIO
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
UDI
1.12
LEAGUE1.31
FIO
1.35
FIO scores +0.23 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
UDI
1.61
LEAGUE1.31
FIO
1.56
FIO concedes 0.05 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
UDI
20th
In the relegation zone on 5 points.
FIO
15th
Hovering above relegation on 9 points.
FIO sit 5 places higher in the table
