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Como vs Cagliari
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 09:16 UTC · 8 NovCOM 67%Draw 22%CAG 11%
Expected goals · COM 1.9 · CAG 0.7 · 2.6 total
COM's attack (1.17x the league average) against CAG's defence (1.15x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for COM's win chance, the blue ones for CAG's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| COM goals | CAG 0 | CAG 1 | CAG 2 | CAG 3 | CAG 4 | CAG 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COM 0 | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 1 | 14% | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 2 | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 3 | 9% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 4 | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| COM 5 | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
COM 66.9% · Draw 21.8% · CAG 11.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
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THE CALL
Como are 67% favourites, with 1.90 expected goals against Cagliari's 0.68, so the model expects them to control this match.
THE ANGLE
Como's 9 goals scored across their last five matches against Cagliari's 4 points to a widening gap, while the 2-0 and 1-0 scorelines each at 14% lead the distribution.
THE CAVEAT
Cagliari have lost four of their last five (WLLLL) and conceded 12 in that run, so the model's flat season averages may understate how far their defence has slipped.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
COM
4-2-3-1CAG
4-3-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Como
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cagliari
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Back Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS42%
COM CLEAN SHEET52%
CAG CLEAN SHEET15%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
COM
CAG
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
COM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Inter last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1CAG
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
COM
1.63
LEAGUE1.31
CAG
1.03
COM scores +0.60 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
COM
0.88
LEAGUE1.31
CAG
1.43
COM concedes 0.55 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
COM
5th
In the Europa League place on 23 points.
CAG
9th
Mid-table on 16 points.
COM sit 4 places higher in the table
