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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongPreston North End v Blackburn Rovers2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.7155 Sept 2026
  2. WrongLincoln City v Southampton1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.7835 Sept 2026
  3. WrongReal Betis v Real Madrid1–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.6214 Sept 2026
  4. WrongSparta Rotterdam v PEC Zwolle2–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.8424 Sept 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.