Skip to main content

Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongElche v Real Sociedad2–3
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.6637 Sept 2026
  2. WrongEstoril v Arouca0–0
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.7407 Sept 2026
  3. WrongGetafe v Celta Vigo1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.7107 Sept 2026
  4. WrongEspanyol v Sevilla1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.8516 Sept 2026
  5. WrongVitória de Guimaraes v Casa Pia0–0
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.8626 Sept 2026
  6. WrongMálaga v Levante0–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.7726 Sept 2026
  7. RightAlavés v Osasuna5–2
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4176 Sept 2026
  8. RightValencia v Barcelona0–5
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.3406 Sept 2026
  9. RightHeerenveen v AZ Alkmaar2–3
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.3776 Sept 2026
  10. WrongBirmingham City v Wolverhampton Wanderers2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.8696 Sept 2026
  11. WrongAthletic Club v Atlético Madrid3–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.7235 Sept 2026
  12. RightReading v Blackpool3–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.3875 Sept 2026
  13. WrongLuton Town v Leyton Orient1–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.8885 Sept 2026
  14. WrongDoncaster Rovers v Plymouth Argyle2–3
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.8575 Sept 2026
  15. RightBradford City v Mansfield Town1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.2585 Sept 2026
  16. WrongBarnsley v Stevenage1–5
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.9355 Sept 2026
  17. RightWest Ham United v Derby County3–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.4345 Sept 2026
  18. RightWest Bromwich Albion v Watford1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3645 Sept 2026
  19. WrongSheffield United v Norwich City1–3
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.9605 Sept 2026
  20. WrongQueens Park Rangers v Middlesbrough0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.8365 Sept 2026
  21. WrongPortsmouth v Cardiff City2–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.6115 Sept 2026
  22. RightMillwall v Bolton Wanderers4–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.4945 Sept 2026
  23. RightBurnley v Bristol City1–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.5025 Sept 2026
  24. RightPeterborough United v Sheffield Wednesday1–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.5915 Sept 2026
  25. WrongStoke City v Charlton Athletic4–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.6715 Sept 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.