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Wrexham vs Portsmouth
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 22:50 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
WXM 39%Draw 30%POR 31%
Expected goals · WXM 1.2 · POR 1.0 · 2.2 total
WXM's attack (1.04x the league average) against POR's defence (0.79x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for WXM's win chance, the blue ones for POR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| WXM goals | POR 0 | POR 1 | POR 2 | POR 3 | POR 4 | POR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WXM 0 | 11% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| WXM 1 | 12% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| WXM 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WXM 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WXM 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| WXM 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
WXM 39.2% · Draw 30.1% · POR 30.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 39% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 30% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
WXM
3-4-2-1POR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Wrexham
Thigh Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Portsmouth
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Calf Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Ankle Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.567%
OVER 2.539%
OVER 3.519%
BTTS46%
WXM CLEAN SHEET35%
POR CLEAN SHEET30%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
WXM
POR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
WXM
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2POR
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 1–2 to Stoke City last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
WXM
1.39
LEAGUE1.35
POR
1.46
POR scores +0.07 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
WXM
1.26
LEAGUE1.35
POR
1.18
POR concedes 0.08 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
WXM
15th
Mid-table on 18 points.
POR
11th
Mid-table on 22 points.
POR sit 4 places higher in the table