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Preston North End vs Norwich City
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 18:28 UTC · 14 NovPNE 26%Draw 24%NOR 50%
Expected goals · PNE 1.3 · NOR 1.9 · 3.2 total
NOR's attack (1.37x the league average) against PNE's defence (1.12x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for PNE's win chance, the blue ones for NOR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| PNE goals | NOR 0 | NOR 1 | NOR 2 | NOR 3 | NOR 4 | NOR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNE 0 | 5% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| PNE 1 | 5% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| PNE 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| PNE 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| PNE 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PNE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
PNE 25.8% · Draw 23.9% · NOR 50.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Norwich City have the edge at 50% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.3 vs 1.9 gives Norwich City the edge but leaves room for Preston North End to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
PNE
3-4-1-2NOR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Preston North End
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Norwich City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Shoulder Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.583%
OVER 2.561%
OVER 3.538%
BTTS62%
PNE CLEAN SHEET16%
NOR CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
PNE
NOR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
PNE
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3NOR
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
PNE
1.22
LEAGUE1.35
NOR
1.68
NOR scores +0.46 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
PNE
1.64
LEAGUE1.35
NOR
1.44
NOR concedes 0.20 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
PNE
24th
In the relegation zone on 8 points.
NOR
12th
Mid-table on 21 points.
NOR sit 12 places higher in the table
