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Cardiff City vs Preston North End
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:48 UTC · 11 NovCAR 59%Draw 21%PNE 20%
Expected goals · CAR 2.3 · PNE 1.3 · 3.6 total
CAR's attack (1.27x the league average) against PNE's defence (1.20x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.0.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CAR's win chance, the blue ones for PNE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CAR goals | PNE 0 | PNE 1 | PNE 2 | PNE 3 | PNE 4 | PNE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR 0 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAR 1 | 6% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CAR 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| CAR 3 | 6% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CAR 4 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAR 5 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
CAR 59.3% · Draw 20.6% · PNE 20.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (3.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Cardiff City should control this — 59% win probability and 1.5 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 2.3 vs 1.3 leaves little room for Preston North End to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CAR
4-2-3-1PNE
3-4-1-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Cardiff City
Knee Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Preston North End
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.588%
OVER 2.569%
OVER 3.548%
BTTS65%
CAR CLEAN SHEET28%
PNE CLEAN SHEET10%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CAR
PNE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CAR
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1PNE
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
CAR
1.52
LEAGUE1.35
PNE
1.22
CAR scores +0.30 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CAR
1.57
LEAGUE1.35
PNE
1.64
CAR concedes 0.07 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
CAR
14th
Mid-table on 18 points.
PNE
24th
In the relegation zone on 8 points.
CAR sit 10 places higher in the table
