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Norwich City vs Cardiff City
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 21:56 UTC · 8 NovNOR 51%Draw 23%CAR 26%
Expected goals · NOR 1.9 · CAR 1.3 · 3.2 total
NOR's attack (1.11x the league average) against CAR's defence (1.16x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NOR's win chance, the blue ones for CAR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NOR goals | CAR 0 | CAR 1 | CAR 2 | CAR 3 | CAR 4 | CAR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOR 0 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| NOR 1 | 7% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| NOR 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| NOR 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| NOR 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NOR 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NOR 50.5% · Draw 23.4% · CAR 26.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Norwich City have the edge at 51% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.9 vs 1.3 gives Norwich City the edge but leaves room for Cardiff City to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NOR
4-2-3-1CAR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Norwich City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Shoulder Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Cardiff City
Knee Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.563%
OVER 3.541%
BTTS64%
NOR CLEAN SHEET26%
CAR CLEAN SHEET15%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NOR
CAR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NOR
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1CAR
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
NOR
1.68
LEAGUE1.35
CAR
1.52
NOR scores +0.16 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NOR
1.44
LEAGUE1.35
CAR
1.57
NOR concedes 0.13 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
NOR
12th
Mid-table on 21 points.
CAR
14th
Mid-table on 18 points.
NOR sit 2 places higher in the table