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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightLyon v Angers2–0
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.1901 Nov 2026
  2. RightParis FC v AS Monaco3–1
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.5521 Nov 2026
  3. WrongKasimpasa v Besiktas2–2
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.8071 Nov 2026
  4. WrongFC Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam2–3
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.7821 Nov 2026
  5. RightArouca v C.D. Nacional1–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.2541 Nov 2026
  6. WrongCeuta v Sporting Gijón0–2
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 36%Result Away winBrier 0.6211 Nov 2026
  7. RightRacing Santander v Real Madrid0–3
    La LigaWe said Away win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.3261 Nov 2026
  8. WrongSint-Truidense v OH Leuven1–2
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.9731 Nov 2026
  9. Wrong1. FC Union Berlin v FC Cologne1–1
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.7621 Nov 2026
  10. WrongEmpoli v Juve Stabia2–2
    Serie BWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.7381 Nov 2026
  11. RightStrasbourg v AJ Auxerre5–1
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.4311 Nov 2026
  12. RightLazio v Cagliari2–1
    Serie AWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.2581 Nov 2026
  13. RightFrosinone v Torino2–0
    Serie AWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.4961 Nov 2026
  14. WrongUS Avellino v Pisa2–0
    Serie BWe said Away win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.7901 Nov 2026
  15. WrongSheffield Wednesday v Blackpool1–1
    League OneWe said Home win at 58%Result DrawBrier 0.9331 Nov 2026
  16. WrongArezzo v Ascoli0–0
    Serie BWe said Away win at 64%Result DrawBrier 1.0661 Nov 2026
  17. RightExcelsior v FC Twente0–9
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 56%Result Away winBrier 0.2861 Nov 2026
  18. RightTelstar v FC Utrecht4–2
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.5601 Nov 2026
  19. RightIstanbul Basaksehir v Samsunspor5–2
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.2651 Nov 2026
  20. RightTrabzonspor v Gaziantep FK2–0
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 72%Result Home winBrier 0.1231 Nov 2026
  21. WrongEldense v Granada0–2
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.7071 Nov 2026
  22. RightGetafe v Sevilla3–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 34%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.6541 Nov 2026
  23. WrongFalkirk v Celtic2–0
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Away win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.9611 Nov 2026
  24. RightCercle Brugge KSV v Antwerp2–1
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4211 Nov 2026
  25. RightHannover 96 v Dynamo Dresden2–1
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.3941 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.