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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongLAFC v Minnesota United FC1–3
    MlsWe said Home win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.8482 Nov 2026
  2. RightCruz Azul v León2–1
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3522 Nov 2026
  3. RightNew England Revolution v Inter Miami CF1–2
    MlsWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.5071 Nov 2026
  4. WrongLanús v Gimnasia (Mendoza)1–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.7821 Nov 2026
  5. RightSantos v Necaxa1–0
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.2511 Nov 2026
  6. WrongBelgrano (Córdoba) v Barracas Central2–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.6631 Nov 2026
  7. WrongNewell's Old Boys v Unión (Santa Fe)1–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.7721 Nov 2026
  8. RightAtlanta United FC v Toronto FC3–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.5191 Nov 2026
  9. RightNashville SC v Red Bull New York3–2
    MlsWe said Home win at 72%Result Home winBrier 0.1211 Nov 2026
  10. RightVancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders FC5–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.3241 Nov 2026
  11. WrongBraga v FC Famalicao3–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.6871 Nov 2026
  12. RightAthletic Club v Real Sociedad2–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.4421 Nov 2026
  13. RightJuventus v Napoli2–0
    Serie AWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.5981 Nov 2026
  14. RightMarseille v Toulouse2–0
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4311 Nov 2026
  15. RightPalermo v Vicenza3–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.2761 Nov 2026
  16. RightBoca Juniors v River Plate1–0
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.5401 Nov 2026
  17. RightRoyal Charleroi SC v RAAL La Louvière5–2
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 70%Result Home winBrier 0.1411 Nov 2026
  18. RightAcadémico de Viseu v Rio Ave2–1
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4291 Nov 2026
  19. RightMaritimo v Santa Clara0–2
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.4601 Nov 2026
  20. WrongBurgos v Castellón1–1
    Segunda DivisionWe said Away win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.6941 Nov 2026
  21. WrongElche v Valencia0–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.7291 Nov 2026
  22. RightLecce v Genoa1–2
    Serie AWe said Away win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.5751 Nov 2026
  23. RightEintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg SV3–1
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.3361 Nov 2026
  24. RightHellas Verona v Carrarese3–0
    Serie BWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.2421 Nov 2026
  25. RightLiverpool v Arsenal0–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.4421 Nov 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.