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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightSpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel1–0
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.5581 Nov 2026
  2. WrongSt. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg1–3
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.7721 Nov 2026
  3. WrongTenerife v FC Andorra2–2
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7221 Nov 2026
  4. WrongLommel SK v KAA Gent2–0
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.8961 Nov 2026
  5. RightComo v Venezia1–0
    Serie AWe said Home win at 72%Result Home winBrier 0.1241 Nov 2026
  6. RightPEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag1–0
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.3951 Nov 2026
  7. RightAmed SFK v Eyupspor5–1
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 89%Result Home winBrier 0.0211 Nov 2026
  8. WrongV-Varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy 19691–2
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.9841 Nov 2026
  9. RightJEF United Ichihara-Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka3–0
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.4271 Nov 2026
  10. RightYokohama F. Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale4–2
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.5621 Nov 2026
  11. WrongAmérica v Toluca2–2
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.8851 Nov 2026
  12. WrongColorado Rapids v Chicago Fire FC2–4
    MlsWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.7761 Nov 2026
  13. RightGuadalajara v Atlante4–2
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.3591 Nov 2026
  14. WrongMonterrey v Tijuana3–3
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.8751 Nov 2026
  15. WrongEstudiantes de La Plata v Instituto (Córdoba)3–3
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.7011 Nov 2026
  16. RightPachuca v Tigres UANL3–0
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43731 Oct 2026
  17. WrongVélez Sarsfield v San Lorenzo2–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.69131 Oct 2026
  18. RightSan Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake2–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56931 Oct 2026
  19. RightLA Galaxy v Austin FC4–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.32031 Oct 2026
  20. RightFC Porto v Estoril4–0
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 75%Result Home winBrier 0.09531 Oct 2026
  21. WrongDeportivo Riestra v Talleres (Córdoba)0–3
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Draw at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.72731 Oct 2026
  22. RightAjax Amsterdam v AZ Alkmaar1–0
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.41731 Oct 2026
  23. WrongAlbacete v CD Sabadell2–1
    Segunda DivisionWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.73531 Oct 2026
  24. WrongAston Villa v Fulham1–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.73531 Oct 2026
  25. WrongSC Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles4–0
    EredivisieWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.61131 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.