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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongFenerbahce v Goztepe1–2
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 61%Result Away winBrier 1.02831 Oct 2026
  2. RightMoreirense v Estrela2–1
    Primeira LigaWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54831 Oct 2026
  3. WrongFeyenoord Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard1–1
    EredivisieWe said Home win at 69%Result DrawBrier 1.16531 Oct 2026
  4. WrongEibar v Almería1–1
    Segunda DivisionWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.78631 Oct 2026
  5. WrongRayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo3–0
    La LigaWe said Away win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.72331 Oct 2026
  6. RightKV Mechelen v Racing Genk1–0
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56831 Oct 2026
  7. WrongBurnley v Portsmouth0–0
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 36%Result DrawBrier 0.73731 Oct 2026
  8. WrongKilmarnock v St Johnstone2–2
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Away win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.81031 Oct 2026
  9. WrongManchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion0–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.89331 Oct 2026
  10. RightWigan Athletic v Bromley3–2
    League OneWe said Home win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.59831 Oct 2026
  11. WrongMansfield Town v Notts County0–2
    League OneWe said Home win at 55%Result Away winBrier 1.02831 Oct 2026
  12. RightMillwall v Derby County4–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29731 Oct 2026
  13. RightWolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff City3–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.37631 Oct 2026
  14. RightStockport County v AFC Wimbledon2–1
    League OneWe said Home win at 64%Result Home winBrier 0.20231 Oct 2026
  15. RightMilton Keynes Dons v Doncaster Rovers6–1
    League OneWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.58031 Oct 2026
  16. RightMotherwell v St Mirren1–0
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.53331 Oct 2026
  17. RightPeterborough United v Luton Town0–2
    League OneWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.52631 Oct 2026
  18. RightSouthampton v Queens Park Rangers4–1
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 64%Result Home winBrier 0.19931 Oct 2026
  19. WrongWest Ham United v West Bromwich Albion1–3
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 61%Result Away winBrier 1.13831 Oct 2026
  20. RightCoventry City v Sunderland3–1
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.59531 Oct 2026
  21. RightAFC Bournemouth v Leeds United2–0
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.44731 Oct 2026
  22. RightMiddlesbrough v Charlton Athletic3–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 64%Result Home winBrier 0.20031 Oct 2026
  23. RightSwansea City v Blackburn Rovers4–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.54531 Oct 2026
  24. WrongHull City v Ipswich Town2–2
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.84031 Oct 2026
  25. RightWycombe Wanderers v Burton Albion2–0
    League OneWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.38331 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.