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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongBarnsley v Oxford United1–1
    League OneWe said Away win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.84031 Oct 2026
  2. RightBolton Wanderers v Bristol City2–3
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.53631 Oct 2026
  3. WrongLeicester City v Stevenage2–2
    League OneWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.75431 Oct 2026
  4. RightBrentford v Nottingham Forest2–0
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.44631 Oct 2026
  5. RightAl Fayha v Al Faisaly4–1
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52531 Oct 2026
  6. WrongWerder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim2–0
    BundesligaWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.64531 Oct 2026
  7. WrongFC Augsburg v SC Freiburg1–2
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.65031 Oct 2026
  8. RightSchalke 04 v RB Leipzig0–2
    BundesligaWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.52131 Oct 2026
  9. WrongBayer Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart2–4
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 61%Result Away winBrier 1.06931 Oct 2026
  10. WrongBorussia Mönchengladbach v SC Paderborn 070–0
    BundesligaWe said Home win at 52%Result DrawBrier 0.87731 Oct 2026
  11. WrongSudtirol v Cesena1–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.70931 Oct 2026
  12. WrongModena v Mantova1–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.80431 Oct 2026
  13. RightBologna v Monza2–1
    Serie AWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.37631 Oct 2026
  14. WrongCremonese v Benevento2–0
    Serie BWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.68631 Oct 2026
  15. WrongAl Taawoun v Al Ettifaq1–1
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 53%Result DrawBrier 0.84831 Oct 2026
  16. WrongKocaelispor v Caykur Rizespor0–0
    Turkish Super LigWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.77631 Oct 2026
  17. WrongReal Sociedad II v Girona1–0
    Segunda DivisionWe said Away win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.97731 Oct 2026
  18. RightAnnecy v Montpellier0–3
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.61631 Oct 2026
  19. RightLevante v Atlético Madrid0–2
    La LigaWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.43631 Oct 2026
  20. RightStoke City v Preston North End2–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50731 Oct 2026
  21. WrongLeyton Orient v Cambridge United3–0
    League OneWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.70531 Oct 2026
  22. WrongBradford City v Huddersfield Town0–3
    League OneWe said Home win at 41%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.82731 Oct 2026
  23. RightNorwich City v Watford3–2
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 62%Result Home winBrier 0.22231 Oct 2026
  24. RightChelsea v Manchester United2–0
    Premier LeagueWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.53731 Oct 2026
  25. RightLincoln City v Birmingham City1–3
    ChampionshipWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.57231 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.