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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongPlymouth Argyle v Reading0–0
    League OneWe said Away win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.77231 Oct 2026
  2. WrongKaiserslautern v Hertha Berlin0–3
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.79131 Oct 2026
  3. WrongSV Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Magdeburg1–1
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.83031 Oct 2026
  4. RightVfL Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabruck2–0
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.26231 Oct 2026
  5. WrongMachida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka0–0
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 64%Result DrawBrier 1.07531 Oct 2026
  6. RightErzurum BB v Çorum FK1–3
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.54731 Oct 2026
  7. RightKashiwa Reysol v Urawa Red Diamonds4–0
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39731 Oct 2026
  8. RightKashima Antlers v Cerezo Osaka4–1
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.20831 Oct 2026
  9. RightVissel Kobe v Nagoya Grampus3–1
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.34031 Oct 2026
  10. RightMito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–3
    J1 LeagueWe said Away win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.37631 Oct 2026
  11. RightKyoto Sanga v Shimizu S-Pulse2–0
    J1 LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39031 Oct 2026
  12. RightFagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo0–4
    J1 LeagueWe said Away win at 57%Result Away winBrier 0.28231 Oct 2026
  13. RightPuebla v Pumas UNAM1–2
    Liga MxWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.57031 Oct 2026
  14. RightAtlético de San Luis v Atlas0–1
    Liga MxWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.51831 Oct 2026
  15. WrongFC Juárez v Querétaro3–1
    Liga MxWe said Away win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.84431 Oct 2026
  16. RightRacing Club v Aldosivi2–1
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43530 Oct 2026
  17. RightSarmiento (Junín) v Rosario Central1–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.57730 Oct 2026
  18. RightCorinthians v Mirassol2–0
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.54530 Oct 2026
  19. WrongHuracán v Tigre0–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.77830 Oct 2026
  20. RightEstudiantes de Río Cuarto v Gimnasia La Plata1–2
    Argentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.46330 Oct 2026
  21. RightCasa Pia v Sporting CP0–2
    Primeira LigaWe said Away win at 70%Result Away winBrier 0.13630 Oct 2026
  22. RightZulte-Waregem v Club Brugge2–4
    Belgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.31630 Oct 2026
  23. RightLille v Lens1–0
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.62830 Oct 2026
  24. WrongVillarreal v Espanyol0–1
    La LigaWe said Home win at 60%Result Away winBrier 1.09730 Oct 2026
  25. RightSheffield United v Wrexham1–0
    ChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52430 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.