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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongSV Elversberg v Mainz4–1
    BundesligaWe said Away win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.99830 Oct 2026
  2. WrongNantes v Clermont Foot1–1
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.76030 Oct 2026
  3. WrongMetz v Pau1–3
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.77330 Oct 2026
  4. RightGrenoble v Dijon FCO1–3
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.51630 Oct 2026
  5. RightRodez Aveyron v Dunkerque1–0
    Ligue 2We said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56130 Oct 2026
  6. WrongStade Laval v Boulogne1–0
    Ligue 2We said Away win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.80630 Oct 2026
  7. RightLe Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain1–5
    Ligue 1We said Away win at 67%Result Away winBrier 0.17230 Oct 2026
  8. RightNice v Stade Rennais5–2
    Ligue 1We said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54630 Oct 2026
  9. WrongAl Shabab v Al Ahli6–1
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.76530 Oct 2026
  10. RightArminia Bielefeld v TSV Eintracht Braunschweig3–1
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.31530 Oct 2026
  11. WrongEnergie Cottbus v VfL Bochum1–2
    Bundesliga 2We said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.81830 Oct 2026
  12. RightKonyaspor v Galatasaray0–4
    Turkish Super LigWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.53030 Oct 2026
  13. RightAl Diriyah v Neom SC1–2
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.47630 Oct 2026
  14. WrongAbha v Al Ittihad1–1
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 62%Result DrawBrier 0.97530 Oct 2026
  15. WrongGrêmio v Athletico Paranaense2–0
    Brazil Serie AWe said Away win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.69529 Oct 2026
  16. RightVasco da Gama v Flamengo1–4
    Brazil Serie AWe said Away win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.32029 Oct 2026
  17. WrongFiorentina v Atalanta2–2
    Serie AWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.80429 Oct 2026
  18. RightEverton v Newcastle United3–1
    League CupWe said Home win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.55229 Oct 2026
  19. RightAl Riyadh v Al Qadsiah0–6
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 65%Result Away winBrier 0.19329 Oct 2026
  20. RightAl Nassr v Al Kholood5–3
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 76%Result Home winBrier 0.08829 Oct 2026
  21. RightFrosinone v Lecce5–1
    Serie AWe said Home win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.54929 Oct 2026
  22. WrongNumancia v Real Oviedo3–3
    Copa Del ReyWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.78029 Oct 2026
  23. RightAl Khaleej v Al Hazem4–2
    Saudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54229 Oct 2026
  24. WrongAmérica v Tijuana1–1
    Liga MxWe said Home win at 57%Result DrawBrier 0.98529 Oct 2026
  25. RightVancouver Whitecaps v San Diego FC4–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.30129 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.