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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongSeattle Sounders FC v Houston Dynamo FC0–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.79029 Oct 2026
  2. WrongSan Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids2–2
    MlsWe said Home win at 50%Result DrawBrier 0.86729 Oct 2026
  3. WrongSt. Louis CITY SC v Portland Timbers2–3
    MlsWe said Home win at 58%Result Away winBrier 1.03029 Oct 2026
  4. RightRemo v Botafogo2–1
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50429 Oct 2026
  5. RightMinnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City3–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 64%Result Home winBrier 0.19229 Oct 2026
  6. WrongAustin FC v Real Salt Lake1–2
    MlsWe said Home win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.62128 Oct 2026
  7. WrongNashville SC v Philadelphia Union0–0
    MlsWe said Home win at 63%Result DrawBrier 1.07428 Oct 2026
  8. WrongFC Dallas v Columbus Crew0–2
    MlsWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.71528 Oct 2026
  9. RightBahia v São Paulo3–2
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40428 Oct 2026
  10. WrongChicago Fire FC v Orlando City SC2–2
    MlsWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.94528 Oct 2026
  11. WrongInter Miami CF v FC Cincinnati2–2
    MlsWe said Home win at 66%Result DrawBrier 1.15128 Oct 2026
  12. RightNew York City FC v Atlanta United FC2–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39328 Oct 2026
  13. RightNew England Revolution v Red Bull New York3–2
    MlsWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43128 Oct 2026
  14. RightCharlotte FC v CF Montréal4–0
    MlsWe said Home win at 66%Result Home winBrier 0.17628 Oct 2026
  15. RightToronto FC v D.C. United2–1
    MlsWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40128 Oct 2026
  16. RightRed Bull Bragantino v Chapecoense3–0
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.22628 Oct 2026
  17. WrongSantos v Palmeiras0–0
    Brazil Serie AWe said Away win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.85628 Oct 2026
  18. RightFluminense v Internacional2–1
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.32328 Oct 2026
  19. WrongHeart of Midlothian v Rangers2–2
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.80628 Oct 2026
  20. WrongLiverpool v Chelsea1–1
    League CupWe said Away win at 36%Result DrawBrier 0.75928 Oct 2026
  21. RightMonza v Napoli1–4
    Serie AWe said Away win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.34728 Oct 2026
  22. WrongGenoa v Juventus2–0
    Serie AWe said Away win at 51%Result Home winBrier 1.00528 Oct 2026
  23. WrongSt Johnstone v Motherwell2–2
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.85528 Oct 2026
  24. WrongSt Mirren v Hibernian1–1
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Away win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.82428 Oct 2026
  25. WrongCeltic v Dundee United2–2
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 63%Result DrawBrier 1.03928 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.