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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightAscoli v Sampdoria2–0
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.20427 Oct 2026
  2. WrongPadova v Sudtirol2–0
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.64927 Oct 2026
  3. WrongMantova v Cremonese0–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.96927 Oct 2026
  4. WrongBenevento v Catanzaro1–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 61%Result DrawBrier 1.03327 Oct 2026
  5. RightSassuolo v Lazio2–6
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.46427 Oct 2026
  6. RightInstituto (Córdoba) v Deportivo Riestra1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.28726 Oct 2026
  7. RightFlamengo v Atlético-MG3–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.26426 Oct 2026
  8. WrongCoritiba v Grêmio0–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.88726 Oct 2026
  9. RightUnión (Santa Fe) v Estudiantes de La Plata3–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.51426 Oct 2026
  10. RightSevilla v Osasuna2–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.37426 Oct 2026
  11. WrongBoulogne v Stade de Reims1–1
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Away win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.69326 Oct 2026
  12. RightMontpellier v Red Star FC 932–1
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.63826 Oct 2026
  13. RightParis Saint-Germain v Lyon2–0
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.33826 Oct 2026
  14. WrongFC Andorra v Burgos2–3
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.76626 Oct 2026
  15. RightSanta Clara v Benfica1–2
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.43526 Oct 2026
  16. WrongGalatasaray v Fenerbahce2–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.68026 Oct 2026
  17. RightBesiktas v Istanbul Basaksehir2–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.20726 Oct 2026
  18. RightCaykur Rizespor v Trabzonspor3–4
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.34726 Oct 2026
  19. RightTijuana v Santos4–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50326 Oct 2026
  20. RightQuerétaro v Cruz Azul1–3
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.53626 Oct 2026
  21. WrongAmérica v Pachuca1–2
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.93826 Oct 2026
  22. WrongLAFC v LA Galaxy2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 57%Result DrawBrier 0.93926 Oct 2026
  23. RightBarracas Central v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.33026 Oct 2026
  24. RightCentral Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) v Vélez Sarsfield0–5
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.49625 Oct 2026
  25. RightAtlas v Puebla4–3
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.59025 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.