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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightRiver Plate v Racing Club1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.38925 Oct 2026
  2. RightIndependiente v Boca Juniors0–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.39825 Oct 2026
  3. WrongBarcelona v Real Madrid1–2
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 67%Result Away winBrier 1.19025 Oct 2026
  4. RightUdinese v AC Milan0–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.37625 Oct 2026
  5. WrongAZ Alkmaar v FC Twente0–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.78125 Oct 2026
  6. RightUnion St.-Gilloise v Cercle Brugge KSV5–2
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 69%Result Home winBrier 0.14725 Oct 2026
  7. WrongAldosivi v Belgrano (Córdoba)1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.94625 Oct 2026
  8. WrongC.D. Nacional v Braga1–0
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.75725 Oct 2026
  9. RightRio Ave v FC Famalicao0–4
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.40725 Oct 2026
  10. RightKAA Gent v Anderlecht4–0
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36025 Oct 2026
  11. RightReal Sociedad v Levante2–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.32025 Oct 2026
  12. RightCastellón v Sporting Gijón4–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.34325 Oct 2026
  13. RightLecce v Juventus0–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.51625 Oct 2026
  14. WrongSC Freiburg v Bayern Munich1–3
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.79425 Oct 2026
  15. WrongSunderland v Leeds United0–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.75125 Oct 2026
  16. RightMarseille v Le Havre AC4–3
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.27625 Oct 2026
  17. RightStade Rennais v Strasbourg3–0
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.31425 Oct 2026
  18. WrongAngers v Lorient0–0
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.78825 Oct 2026
  19. WrongAJ Auxerre v Le Mans1–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.90325 Oct 2026
  20. WrongHellas Verona v Pisa1–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.87925 Oct 2026
  21. WrongGoztepe v Çorum FK2–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.67025 Oct 2026
  22. RightSparta Rotterdam v Ajax Amsterdam1–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 70%Result Away winBrier 0.13925 Oct 2026
  23. WrongEstoril v Moreirense1–3
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.66925 Oct 2026
  24. RightCádiz v Ceuta3–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29925 Oct 2026
  25. WrongCelta Vigo v Real Betis0–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.87125 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.