Skip to main content

Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightDundee v Kilmarnock3–1
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.33328 Oct 2026
  2. RightAFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa3–0
    League CupWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52528 Oct 2026
  3. WrongAberdeen v Falkirk0–1
    Scottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.74628 Oct 2026
  4. WrongFulham v Crystal Palace0–1
    League CupWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.78428 Oct 2026
  5. WrongSunderland v Brentford3–2
    League CupWe said Away win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.80328 Oct 2026
  6. WrongManchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion2–2
    League CupWe said Home win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.89828 Oct 2026
  7. RightCarrarese v Arezzo2–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43328 Oct 2026
  8. WrongJuve Stabia v Hellas Verona0–1
    Serie BWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.79028 Oct 2026
  9. WrongPisa v Palermo3–3
    Serie BWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.85128 Oct 2026
  10. RightVenezia v Internazionale0–2
    Serie AWe said Away win at 80%Result Away winBrier 0.06428 Oct 2026
  11. WrongAC Milan v Bologna2–4
    Serie AWe said Home win at 42%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.82928 Oct 2026
  12. WrongParma v Udinese0–0
    Serie AWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.77328 Oct 2026
  13. RightDynamo Dresden v Schalke 042–0
    Dfb PokalWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.45328 Oct 2026
  14. WrongSC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg3–2
    Dfb PokalWe said Away win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.68928 Oct 2026
  15. RightSC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart0–1
    Dfb PokalWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.52328 Oct 2026
  16. WrongAtlético-MG v Cruzeiro0–1
    Brazil Serie AWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.81128 Oct 2026
  17. RightArgentinos Juniors v Independiente Rivadavia1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29027 Oct 2026
  18. RightTorino v Como1–3
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.54927 Oct 2026
  19. RightAS Roma v Cagliari4–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 64%Result Home winBrier 0.20427 Oct 2026
  20. WrongOxford United v Stockport County1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.71827 Oct 2026
  21. RightLeicester City v Wigan Athletic3–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.47627 Oct 2026
  22. WrongBradford City v Peterborough United2–0
    Previous modelLeague CupWe said Away win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.66527 Oct 2026
  23. WrongVirtus Entella v US Avellino1–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.74427 Oct 2026
  24. RightVicenza v Modena1–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.33527 Oct 2026
  25. RightCesena v Empoli2–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.43027 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.