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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongAlbacete v Eldense2–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.79825 Oct 2026
  2. RightClub Brugge v Sint-Truidense3–2
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 66%Result Home winBrier 0.17425 Oct 2026
  3. WrongTSG Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen3–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.67925 Oct 2026
  4. RightGenoa v Venezia1–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.48825 Oct 2026
  5. WrongAtalanta v Frosinone4–4
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.82525 Oct 2026
  6. RightPalermo v Carrarese2–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36225 Oct 2026
  7. WrongManchester United v AFC Bournemouth0–3
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.94225 Oct 2026
  8. WrongLiverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion2–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 58%Result Home winBrier 1.02525 Oct 2026
  9. WrongCrystal Palace v Newcastle United0–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.72525 Oct 2026
  10. WrongMotherwell v Heart of Midlothian0–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.59425 Oct 2026
  11. WrongHull City v Brentford1–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.79825 Oct 2026
  12. WrongAS Monaco v Lille1–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.77825 Oct 2026
  13. WrongPSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord Rotterdam1–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.96625 Oct 2026
  14. WrongNEC Nijmegen v FC Groningen2–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.95325 Oct 2026
  15. RightKonyaspor v Genclerbirligi2–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39925 Oct 2026
  16. WrongCD Sabadell v Tenerife1–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.85725 Oct 2026
  17. RightAthletic Club v Getafe4–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.34225 Oct 2026
  18. RightTSV Eintracht Braunschweig v Hannover 962–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39725 Oct 2026
  19. RightRacing Genk v Standard Liege2–1
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.26725 Oct 2026
  20. WrongVfL Osnabruck v SpVgg Greuther Fürth3–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.69825 Oct 2026
  21. RightHolstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden3–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.48625 Oct 2026
  22. RightHibernian v Celtic1–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Away win at 62%Result Away winBrier 0.21625 Oct 2026
  23. RightInternazionale v Fiorentina2–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 71%Result Home winBrier 0.12625 Oct 2026
  24. WrongFortuna Sittard v Excelsior1–0
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.61925 Oct 2026
  25. RightFC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock6–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.25825 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.