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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightKawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama2–1
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.35925 Oct 2026
  2. WrongCerezo Osaka v JEF United Ichihara-Chiba2–2
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.83725 Oct 2026
  3. RightUrawa Red Diamonds v V-Varen Nagasaki1–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.35425 Oct 2026
  4. WrongNagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos1–1
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 35%Result DrawBrier 0.73725 Oct 2026
  5. WrongPumas UNAM v Tigres UANL1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.82825 Oct 2026
  6. WrongSan Diego FC v Seattle Sounders FC2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.85425 Oct 2026
  7. WrongPortland Timbers v Charlotte FC3–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.61425 Oct 2026
  8. WrongColorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps1–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.71125 Oct 2026
  9. RightReal Salt Lake v St. Louis CITY SC3–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.55925 Oct 2026
  10. WrongMonterrey v Guadalajara0–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.70525 Oct 2026
  11. RightFC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes3–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56225 Oct 2026
  12. RightRosario Central v Huracán2–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.37025 Oct 2026
  13. WrongSporting Kansas City v Austin FC1–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.61325 Oct 2026
  14. WrongHouston Dynamo FC v Minnesota United FC0–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.88424 Oct 2026
  15. WrongSantos v Bahia1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.82824 Oct 2026
  16. WrongPhiladelphia Union v New England Revolution1–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.88024 Oct 2026
  17. WrongD.C. United v FC Cincinnati0–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.65824 Oct 2026
  18. RightAtlanta United FC v Chicago Fire FC2–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.44324 Oct 2026
  19. WrongOrlando City SC v New York City FC2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.89924 Oct 2026
  20. WrongLeón v Toluca1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.87124 Oct 2026
  21. WrongChapecoense v Fluminense2–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Away win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.95524 Oct 2026
  22. WrongSan Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys0–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.64924 Oct 2026
  23. WrongRed Bull New York v Inter Miami CF2–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.97024 Oct 2026
  24. RightPalmeiras v Red Bull Bragantino2–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.25924 Oct 2026
  25. RightVasco da Gama v Corinthians3–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.42524 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.