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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightInternacional v Botafogo3–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50524 Oct 2026
  2. WrongMirassol v São Paulo1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.78124 Oct 2026
  3. RightGil Vicente v FC Porto0–1
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.39224 Oct 2026
  4. RightColumbus Crew v Toronto FC4–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.34224 Oct 2026
  5. WrongVitória v Athletico-PR1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.79924 Oct 2026
  6. RightRAAL La Louvière v Zulte-Waregem3–0
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56724 Oct 2026
  7. WrongAlmería v Real Oviedo2–2
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 59%Result DrawBrier 0.98324 Oct 2026
  8. RightAtlético Madrid v Deportivo1–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.27824 Oct 2026
  9. WrongKVC Westerlo v Waasland-Beveren4–4
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 69%Result DrawBrier 1.17624 Oct 2026
  10. RightLazio v Parma2–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.20824 Oct 2026
  11. RightSaint-Étienne v Nantes1–0
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.18624 Oct 2026
  12. RightLens v Paris FC2–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.46524 Oct 2026
  13. WrongBanfield v Lanús1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 41%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.71624 Oct 2026
  14. RightAl Riyadh v Al Taawoun2–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39624 Oct 2026
  15. RightArezzo v Benevento0–3
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.54024 Oct 2026
  16. RightCF Montréal v Nashville SC0–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 55%Result Away winBrier 0.30624 Oct 2026
  17. WrongAlverca v Arouca0–1
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.77324 Oct 2026
  18. RightValencia v Villarreal1–2
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.43324 Oct 2026
  19. RightBorussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt1–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.21024 Oct 2026
  20. RightGirona v RC Celta Fortuna5–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.31924 Oct 2026
  21. RightLas Palmas v Real Sociedad II1–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56024 Oct 2026
  22. WrongChelsea v Tottenham Hotspur0–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 63%Result Away winBrier 1.13524 Oct 2026
  23. WrongOH Leuven v Lommel SK2–2
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 37%Result DrawBrier 0.77424 Oct 2026
  24. RightSamsunspor v Amed SFK1–2
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 55%Result Away winBrier 0.30424 Oct 2026
  25. WrongNapoli v AS Roma3–3
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.76324 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.