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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightCatanzaro v Ascoli1–6
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 36%Result Away winBrier 0.62424 Oct 2026
  2. RightAl Kholood v Al Ettifaq0–3
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.53224 Oct 2026
  3. WrongFC Utrecht v PEC Zwolle1–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.90124 Oct 2026
  4. WrongEstrela v Casa Pia0–2
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.91724 Oct 2026
  5. WrongLeganés v Mallorca1–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.65224 Oct 2026
  6. RightRacing Santander v Espanyol2–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52324 Oct 2026
  7. WrongDoncaster Rovers v Sheffield Wednesday2–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.74124 Oct 2026
  8. WrongLincoln City v Burnley4–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.88424 Oct 2026
  9. WrongAntwerp v Royal Charleroi SC3–0
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.93324 Oct 2026
  10. WrongAFC Wimbledon v Wycombe Wanderers1–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.75924 Oct 2026
  11. RightRangers v St Johnstone4–0
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40024 Oct 2026
  12. RightWolverhampton Wanderers v Watford1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 62%Result Home winBrier 0.21624 Oct 2026
  13. RightReading v Barnsley2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 67%Result Home winBrier 0.16524 Oct 2026
  14. WrongStoke City v Bristol City0–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.87724 Oct 2026
  15. RightCardiff City v Birmingham City1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52724 Oct 2026
  16. WrongQueens Park Rangers v Swansea City5–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.62824 Oct 2026
  17. WrongPreston North End v West Bromwich Albion1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.82124 Oct 2026
  18. WrongCoventry City v Fulham0–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.73024 Oct 2026
  19. WrongOxford United v Bradford City0–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.74524 Oct 2026
  20. RightBlackburn Rovers v Wrexham2–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.39924 Oct 2026
  21. RightDundee United v Aberdeen3–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54324 Oct 2026
  22. RightNeom SC v Abha2–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29324 Oct 2026
  23. WrongWest Ham United v Southampton2–3
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 57%Result Away winBrier 1.02624 Oct 2026
  24. WrongSt Mirren v Dundee2–1
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Away win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.79324 Oct 2026
  25. WrongStevenage v Milton Keynes Dons0–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.90424 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.