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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightFalkirk v Kilmarnock3–0
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.49624 Oct 2026
  2. WrongNotts County v Stockport County1–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.78424 Oct 2026
  3. RightCambridge United v Plymouth Argyle2–3
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.54524 Oct 2026
  4. WrongBurton Albion v Leyton Orient2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.74224 Oct 2026
  5. WrongBromley v Peterborough United1–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 37%Result DrawBrier 0.79724 Oct 2026
  6. RightArsenal v Everton2–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36724 Oct 2026
  7. WrongBlackpool v Mansfield Town1–4
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.86824 Oct 2026
  8. WrongFC Cologne v Schalke 040–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.84424 Oct 2026
  9. RightRB Leipzig v SV Elversberg4–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 70%Result Home winBrier 0.13924 Oct 2026
  10. RightSC Paderborn 07 v Hamburg SV1–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40524 Oct 2026
  11. WrongMainz v Werder Bremen2–3
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.71024 Oct 2026
  12. WrongFC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin1–1
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 74%Result DrawBrier 1.28724 Oct 2026
  13. RightCremonese v Juve Stabia0–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.63024 Oct 2026
  14. WrongCagliari v Bologna0–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.83124 Oct 2026
  15. RightComo v Sassuolo2–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.33524 Oct 2026
  16. RightModena v Cesena3–0
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40324 Oct 2026
  17. RightVirtus Entella v Mantova0–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.56924 Oct 2026
  18. WrongSudtirol v Sampdoria1–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 57%Result DrawBrier 0.92024 Oct 2026
  19. WrongGaziantep FK v Erzurum BB1–3
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.77324 Oct 2026
  20. WrongUS Avellino v Padova0–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 57%Result Away winBrier 1.02424 Oct 2026
  21. WrongDijon FCO v Rodez Aveyron1–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 56%Result Away winBrier 0.93924 Oct 2026
  22. WrongCórdoba v Eibar2–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.82224 Oct 2026
  23. WrongRayo Vallecano v Elche0–3
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.72224 Oct 2026
  24. WrongSheffield United v Derby County1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 55%Result DrawBrier 0.91224 Oct 2026
  25. WrongCharlton Athletic v Norwich City1–3
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.79224 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.