Skip to main content

Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongBrest v Nice1–2
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 57%Result Away winBrier 1.04323 Oct 2026
  2. WrongVfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 66%Result Away winBrier 1.20623 Oct 2026
  3. WrongEmpoli v Vicenza0–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.71223 Oct 2026
  4. RightGranada v Real Valladolid2–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39423 Oct 2026
  5. RightAS Nancy Lorraine v Stade Laval1–0
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.34623 Oct 2026
  6. WrongSochaux v Annecy1–3
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.66523 Oct 2026
  7. WrongClermont Foot v Guingamp0–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.79123 Oct 2026
  8. RightPau v Grenoble2–1
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36723 Oct 2026
  9. WrongDunkerque v Metz1–1
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.82823 Oct 2026
  10. RightGo Ahead Eagles v Telstar3–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29723 Oct 2026
  11. RightAl Qadsiah v Al Hilal2–3
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.32523 Oct 2026
  12. WrongAlanyaspor v Kocaelispor1–2
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.82223 Oct 2026
  13. WrongSV Darmstadt 98 v St. Pauli0–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.81523 Oct 2026
  14. WrongVfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg1–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.88023 Oct 2026
  15. RightAl Ittihad v Al Diriyah2–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40723 Oct 2026
  16. RightAl Faisaly v Al Nassr1–3
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 54%Result Away winBrier 0.32423 Oct 2026
  17. RightKV Kortrijk v KV Mechelen1–3
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.58823 Oct 2026
  18. RightAl Fateh v Al Shabab1–3
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.47922 Oct 2026
  19. WrongAl Hazem v Al Fayha2–2
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.75622 Oct 2026
  20. RightAl Ahli v Al Khaleej4–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 72%Result Home winBrier 0.12422 Oct 2026
  21. RightPachuca v Cruz Azul1–2
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.50822 Oct 2026
  22. RightSantos v Pumas UNAM2–0
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.37722 Oct 2026
  23. WrongPuebla v Monterrey1–4
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.70722 Oct 2026
  24. WrongToluca v Tijuana2–2
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 57%Result DrawBrier 0.99122 Oct 2026
  25. RightFC Cincinnati v D.C. United2–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.28021 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.