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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightLuton Town v Leicester City2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.45724 Oct 2026
  2. RightPortsmouth v Millwall2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.49024 Oct 2026
  3. RightHuddersfield Town v Wigan Athletic2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.24924 Oct 2026
  4. WrongAston Villa v Manchester City2–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.96924 Oct 2026
  5. Wrong1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v Energie Cottbus1–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.95224 Oct 2026
  6. RightHertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld1–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.24024 Oct 2026
  7. Right1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC6–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.30924 Oct 2026
  8. RightEyupspor v Kasimpasa0–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 55%Result Away winBrier 0.30624 Oct 2026
  9. RightTalleres (Córdoba) v Defensa y Justicia1–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.53324 Oct 2026
  10. WrongGamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga2–2
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.81424 Oct 2026
  11. WrongVissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia0–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Away win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.94024 Oct 2026
  12. WrongKashima Antlers v Kashiwa Reysol2–3
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.76124 Oct 2026
  13. WrongTokyo Verdy 1969 v Avispa Fukuoka3–1
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Away win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.77124 Oct 2026
  14. RightSanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-Pulse4–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 70%Result Home winBrier 0.14024 Oct 2026
  15. WrongAtlante v Atlético de San Luis0–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.60924 Oct 2026
  16. WrongNecaxa v FC Juárez1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 57%Result DrawBrier 0.95824 Oct 2026
  17. WrongTigre v Atlético Tucumán0–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.76824 Oct 2026
  18. RightCruzeiro v Remo1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.23423 Oct 2026
  19. WrongGimnasia (Mendoza) v Platense1–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.88423 Oct 2026
  20. RightGimnasia La Plata v Sarmiento (Junín)2–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.40523 Oct 2026
  21. RightVitória de Guimaraes v Maritimo5–0
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.56523 Oct 2026
  22. WrongAlavés v Málaga1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 61%Result DrawBrier 0.97223 Oct 2026
  23. WrongIpswich Town v Nottingham Forest1–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.84023 Oct 2026
  24. RightBolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough1–5
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.55123 Oct 2026
  25. RightTorino v Monza3–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43323 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.