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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightBlackpool v Milton Keynes Dons2–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.41920 Oct 2026
  2. WrongWolverhampton Wanderers v Portsmouth1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.81120 Oct 2026
  3. WrongStevenage v Plymouth Argyle3–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.62420 Oct 2026
  4. RightAl Nassr v Neom SC1–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36720 Oct 2026
  5. RightAl Ettifaq v Al Ittihad1–4
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.53820 Oct 2026
  6. RightAl Diriyah v Al Riyadh1–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54420 Oct 2026
  7. RightAl Taawoun v Al Qadsiah0–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 72%Result Away winBrier 0.12420 Oct 2026
  8. Wrong1. FC Nürnberg v Kaiserslautern0–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 57%Result Away winBrier 1.03120 Oct 2026
  9. RightWillem II v SC Cambuur1–6
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.41320 Oct 2026
  10. WrongToulouse v Troyes0–0
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 56%Result DrawBrier 0.93220 Oct 2026
  11. WrongDeportivo Riestra v Unión (Santa Fe)1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.70719 Oct 2026
  12. WrongCorinthians v Vitória1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.77719 Oct 2026
  13. RightNewell's Old Boys v Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)2–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.41419 Oct 2026
  14. WrongSarmiento (Junín) v Barracas Central1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.70319 Oct 2026
  15. RightTottenham Hotspur v Coventry City3–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.53119 Oct 2026
  16. WrongGetafe v Rayo Vallecano1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.79519 Oct 2026
  17. WrongParma v Torino0–3
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.65019 Oct 2026
  18. RightRodez Aveyron v Montpellier0–3
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Away win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.59719 Oct 2026
  19. WrongRC Celta Fortuna v Tenerife1–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.91419 Oct 2026
  20. WrongAl Shabab v Al Faisaly2–2
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.85019 Oct 2026
  21. RightAl Hilal v Al Hazem1–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 63%Result Home winBrier 0.20619 Oct 2026
  22. RightTrabzonspor v Besiktas2–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.22619 Oct 2026
  23. WrongMonza v Cagliari4–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.67919 Oct 2026
  24. RightAl Fayha v Al Ahli2–3
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.43019 Oct 2026
  25. RightMonterrey v Pachuca2–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54819 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.