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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongBelgrano (Córdoba) v River Plate0–3
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 42%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.81318 Oct 2026
  2. WrongRemo v Red Bull Bragantino1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 36%Result DrawBrier 0.73718 Oct 2026
  3. RightBahia v Flamengo0–3
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Away win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.48318 Oct 2026
  4. WrongEstudiantes de Río Cuarto v Aldosivi2–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Draw at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.71018 Oct 2026
  5. WrongFC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew0–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.79218 Oct 2026
  6. WrongFluminense v Santos1–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.86918 Oct 2026
  7. WrongGrêmio v Cruzeiro2–4
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.69518 Oct 2026
  8. RightBurgos v CD Sabadell1–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.49818 Oct 2026
  9. RightReal Madrid v Sevilla4–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.26118 Oct 2026
  10. WrongJuventus v Lazio0–3
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.69218 Oct 2026
  11. RightLyon v Nice2–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.22818 Oct 2026
  12. RightAl Fateh v Al Khaleej2–3
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.59418 Oct 2026
  13. WrongFC Twente v FC Utrecht1–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 66%Result Away winBrier 1.17418 Oct 2026
  14. WrongNEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard2–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.87918 Oct 2026
  15. WrongRacing Club v Independiente1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.75418 Oct 2026
  16. WrongSampdoria v Arezzo1–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.78918 Oct 2026
  17. WrongReal Valladolid v Eldense2–3
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 57%Result Away winBrier 1.05518 Oct 2026
  18. RightGirona v FC Andorra2–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.35718 Oct 2026
  19. RightMálaga v Real Sociedad2–5
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.54918 Oct 2026
  20. RightAC Milan v Atalanta3–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.24318 Oct 2026
  21. RightIstanbul Basaksehir v Gaziantep FK2–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.38518 Oct 2026
  22. WrongBorussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim1–2
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.66918 Oct 2026
  23. RightNottingham Forest v Arsenal0–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.60218 Oct 2026
  24. RightParis FC v Stade Rennais4–3
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.32718 Oct 2026
  25. WrongCesena v US Avellino1–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.79818 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.