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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongLe Havre AC v AJ Auxerre1–3
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.80018 Oct 2026
  2. WrongLorient v AS Monaco1–0
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Away win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.63018 Oct 2026
  3. RightFC Groningen v Ajax Amsterdam2–5
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.44218 Oct 2026
  4. RightCelta Vigo v Alavés2–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.44318 Oct 2026
  5. RightGranada v Cádiz2–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.45818 Oct 2026
  6. RightCeltic v Heart of Midlothian7–1
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.44218 Oct 2026
  7. RightBayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg2–1
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.35918 Oct 2026
  8. WrongJuve Stabia v Sudtirol3–0
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.83018 Oct 2026
  9. WrongLeeds United v Manchester United1–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 50%Result DrawBrier 0.84218 Oct 2026
  10. RightAFC Bournemouth v Sunderland2–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.48418 Oct 2026
  11. WrongAngers v Marseille2–5
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.69118 Oct 2026
  12. RightBrighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace5–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 66%Result Home winBrier 0.17618 Oct 2026
  13. WrongKocaelispor v Goztepe1–2
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.74018 Oct 2026
  14. WrongSC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar2–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 54%Result DrawBrier 0.96918 Oct 2026
  15. RightCeuta v Real Oviedo1–2
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.57818 Oct 2026
  16. RightOsasuna v Racing Santander2–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.38118 Oct 2026
  17. RightKarlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 984–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50918 Oct 2026
  18. WrongDynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg2–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.71818 Oct 2026
  19. RightArminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabruck2–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39818 Oct 2026
  20. RightKasimpasa v Samsunspor4–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.37218 Oct 2026
  21. WrongUdinese v Lecce0–3
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.81818 Oct 2026
  22. WrongPEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles4–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 63%Result Home winBrier 1.13418 Oct 2026
  23. WrongBraga v Gil Vicente0–0
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.65918 Oct 2026
  24. WrongEstudiantes de La Plata v San Lorenzo1–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 56%Result Away winBrier 1.17518 Oct 2026
  25. RightFiorentina v Como1–3
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.50818 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.