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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongMantova v Palermo0–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.69717 Oct 2026
  2. WrongADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven2–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 64%Result Home winBrier 1.11417 Oct 2026
  3. WrongVillarreal v Elche0–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.88917 Oct 2026
  4. WrongEibar v Mallorca1–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.78517 Oct 2026
  5. RightWrexham v Preston North End4–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.44417 Oct 2026
  6. RightWycombe Wanderers v Notts County2–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54717 Oct 2026
  7. WrongSouthampton v Bolton Wanderers0–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 68%Result DrawBrier 1.16517 Oct 2026
  8. RightWest Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers3–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 41%Result Home winBrier 0.52417 Oct 2026
  9. RightBarnsley v Cambridge United1–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.44317 Oct 2026
  10. RightDerby County v Stoke City0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.47817 Oct 2026
  11. WrongSt Johnstone v Dundee United1–1
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.81217 Oct 2026
  12. WrongPlymouth Argyle v Huddersfield Town0–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.71017 Oct 2026
  13. WrongWigan Athletic v Reading1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 56%Result Home winBrier 1.01117 Oct 2026
  14. WrongBrentford v Liverpool1–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.90817 Oct 2026
  15. RightSheffield Wednesday v AFC Wimbledon5–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.31217 Oct 2026
  16. WrongLeicester City v Doncaster Rovers2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.71717 Oct 2026
  17. RightBradford City v Stevenage2–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.61917 Oct 2026
  18. WrongNorwich City v Portsmouth0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.77017 Oct 2026
  19. WrongFulham v Hull City1–0
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.62217 Oct 2026
  20. RightBirmingham City v Queens Park Rangers3–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 37%Result Home winBrier 0.60417 Oct 2026
  21. WrongKilmarnock v Motherwell3–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Away win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.75317 Oct 2026
  22. WrongHibernian v Falkirk1–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.64817 Oct 2026
  23. RightAberdeen v St Mirren3–1
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.42417 Oct 2026
  24. RightLeyton Orient v Blackpool2–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.54317 Oct 2026
  25. WrongSwansea City v West Ham United0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.76417 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.