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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightPlatense v Lanús0–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.42517 Oct 2026
  2. WrongIndependiente Rivadavia v Tigre2–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.88217 Oct 2026
  3. WrongMinnesota United FC v St. Louis CITY SC3–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.82217 Oct 2026
  4. RightLas Palmas v Castellón0–3
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.48117 Oct 2026
  5. RightSparta Rotterdam v Willem II3–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36117 Oct 2026
  6. WrongDundee v Rangers2–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 35%Result DrawBrier 0.73817 Oct 2026
  7. WrongValencia v Athletic Club0–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.70117 Oct 2026
  8. RightAS Roma v Genoa2–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 62%Result Home winBrier 0.21617 Oct 2026
  9. WrongLille v Brest1–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 47%Result DrawBrier 0.84017 Oct 2026
  10. RightTroyes v Lens1–3
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.43317 Oct 2026
  11. WrongHannover 96 v St. Pauli1–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.79817 Oct 2026
  12. WrongPhiladelphia Union v Charlotte FC2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 56%Result DrawBrier 0.98017 Oct 2026
  13. WrongBanfield v Argentinos Juniors0–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 36%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.66917 Oct 2026
  14. RightRed Star FC 93 v Saint-Étienne0–1
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.50317 Oct 2026
  15. RightTelstar v Feyenoord Rotterdam3–4
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 76%Result Away winBrier 0.08917 Oct 2026
  16. WrongAl Diriyah v Al Taawoun1–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.77217 Oct 2026
  17. RightPisa v Cremonese3–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50117 Oct 2026
  18. RightBayern Munich v RB Leipzig6–1
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 67%Result Home winBrier 0.16617 Oct 2026
  19. RightSporting Gijón v Albacete2–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.26317 Oct 2026
  20. WrongNewcastle United v Aston Villa0–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.81717 Oct 2026
  21. RightReal Betis v Barcelona2–5
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.35717 Oct 2026
  22. RightFenerbahce v Alanyaspor3–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.23717 Oct 2026
  23. RightBologna v Internazionale1–3
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.51717 Oct 2026
  24. WrongNeom SC v Al Ettifaq0–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.82717 Oct 2026
  25. WrongStrasbourg v Paris Saint-Germain1–3
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.65917 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.