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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightStockport County v Bromley1–0
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.27117 Oct 2026
  2. WrongBristol City v Sheffield United0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.71217 Oct 2026
  3. RightManchester City v Ipswich Town3–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.28417 Oct 2026
  4. WrongWerder Bremen v SC Paderborn 072–2
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 55%Result DrawBrier 0.90717 Oct 2026
  5. Wrong1. FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund0–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.85917 Oct 2026
  6. RightSV Elversberg v FC Augsburg4–3
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.51217 Oct 2026
  7. RightSchalke 04 v Mainz0–1
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.50917 Oct 2026
  8. RightHamburg SV v VfB Stuttgart1–0
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.57517 Oct 2026
  9. RightPadova v Virtus Entella1–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.56417 Oct 2026
  10. WrongBenevento v Vicenza2–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 57%Result DrawBrier 0.94717 Oct 2026
  11. WrongCarrarese v Modena2–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Away win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.81717 Oct 2026
  12. RightAmed SFK v Konyaspor1–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.19117 Oct 2026
  13. WrongAscoli v Empoli1–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 52%Result DrawBrier 0.86417 Oct 2026
  14. WrongVenezia v Napoli1–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.93117 Oct 2026
  15. RightGenclerbirligi v Galatasaray0–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.48317 Oct 2026
  16. RightMetz v Sochaux3–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.46617 Oct 2026
  17. WrongNantes v Dunkerque2–3
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.75517 Oct 2026
  18. RightReal Sociedad II v Almería2–4
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 41%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.52617 Oct 2026
  19. RightEspanyol v Atlético Madrid0–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.43817 Oct 2026
  20. RightWatford v Charlton Athletic2–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.62217 Oct 2026
  21. WrongPeterborough United v Burton Albion2–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 37%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.69017 Oct 2026
  22. WrongMiddlesbrough v Cardiff City2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 57%Result DrawBrier 0.94517 Oct 2026
  23. WrongMillwall v Lincoln City2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 53%Result DrawBrier 0.85517 Oct 2026
  24. WrongMilton Keynes Dons v Luton Town2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.87817 Oct 2026
  25. WrongEverton v Chelsea0–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.84717 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.