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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightInter Miami CF v New York City FC2–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.32014 Oct 2026
  2. WrongFC Cincinnati v New England Revolution2–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.77914 Oct 2026
  3. RightD.C. United v Red Bull New York2–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.57014 Oct 2026
  4. RightColumbus Crew v Charlotte FC3–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.58814 Oct 2026
  5. WrongCF Montréal v Atlanta United FC0–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.75514 Oct 2026
  6. WrongSarmiento (Junín) v River Plate1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.74114 Oct 2026
  7. RightLincoln City v West Ham United0–6
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 49%Result Away winBrier 0.39214 Oct 2026
  8. RightQueens Park Rangers v Derby County4–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 47%Result Home winBrier 0.42114 Oct 2026
  9. WrongPortsmouth v Sheffield United3–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Away win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.62114 Oct 2026
  10. WrongNorwich City v Southampton0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.65714 Oct 2026
  11. WrongStoke City v Middlesbrough2–3
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.84513 Oct 2026
  12. RightBirmingham City v Preston North End4–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.35613 Oct 2026
  13. WrongWrexham v West Bromwich Albion1–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.70813 Oct 2026
  14. WrongWolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers1–3
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 57%Result Away winBrier 1.00513 Oct 2026
  15. WrongMillwall v Swansea City0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.61713 Oct 2026
  16. RightCardiff City v Watford5–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.30913 Oct 2026
  17. WrongBurnley v Charlton Athletic2–2
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.84713 Oct 2026
  18. WrongBristol City v Blackburn Rovers0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.68513 Oct 2026
  19. RightRed Bull Bragantino v Cruzeiro4–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.55812 Oct 2026
  20. RightChapecoense v Athletico-PR1–4
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Away win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.34812 Oct 2026
  21. RightGimnasia (Mendoza) v Newell's Old Boys1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.45912 Oct 2026
  22. WrongFC Famalicao v Alverca1–4
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.76612 Oct 2026
  23. RightLanús v Vélez Sarsfield2–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.63712 Oct 2026
  24. WrongCoritiba v Botafogo1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.83712 Oct 2026
  25. WrongTenerife v Girona1–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 37%Result DrawBrier 0.76012 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.