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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded516
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongHeerenveen v Excelsior4–0
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.73116 Oct 2026
  2. WrongStade Laval v Clermont Foot3–3
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.78816 Oct 2026
  3. RightStade de Reims v Dijon FCO4–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.45916 Oct 2026
  4. WrongGuingamp v Pau1–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 38%Result Away winBrier 0.65516 Oct 2026
  5. WrongGrenoble v Boulogne0–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 38%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.79016 Oct 2026
  6. WrongAnnecy v AS Nancy Lorraine1–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.69216 Oct 2026
  7. RightÇorum FK v Caykur Rizespor2–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.45316 Oct 2026
  8. WrongHolstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin0–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.91716 Oct 2026
  9. WrongEnergie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg1–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.91216 Oct 2026
  10. RightAl Qadsiah v Abha2–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.18816 Oct 2026
  11. WrongHuracán v Gimnasia La Plata1–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.87415 Oct 2026
  12. WrongMansfield Town v Oxford United1–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.84715 Oct 2026
  13. WrongAl Hazem v Al Fateh2–3
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.94315 Oct 2026
  14. RightAl Khaleej v Al Fayha2–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 34%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.64815 Oct 2026
  15. WrongAl Faisaly v Al Kholood3–2
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.63215 Oct 2026
  16. WrongSan Diego FC v Houston Dynamo FC3–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.87014 Oct 2026
  17. RightLAFC v Austin FC3–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 62%Result Home winBrier 0.22414 Oct 2026
  18. RightLA Galaxy v Portland Timbers2–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.51214 Oct 2026
  19. WrongReal Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes1–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.86314 Oct 2026
  20. WrongColorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 53%Result DrawBrier 0.95314 Oct 2026
  21. WrongSt. Louis CITY SC v Vancouver Whitecaps0–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.91114 Oct 2026
  22. RightNashville SC v Sporting Kansas City4–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 85%Result Home winBrier 0.03714 Oct 2026
  23. RightFC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC1–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.48014 Oct 2026
  24. WrongChicago Fire FC v Philadelphia Union1–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.65414 Oct 2026
  25. WrongToronto FC v Orlando City SC3–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 1.01914 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.