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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded518
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.591

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongCoritiba v Botafogo1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.83712 Oct 2026
  2. WrongTenerife v Girona1–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 37%Result DrawBrier 0.76012 Oct 2026
  3. WrongLevante v Sevilla3–3
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.83712 Oct 2026
  4. WrongCoventry City v Newcastle United4–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.76112 Oct 2026
  5. RightDijon FCO v Metz4–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50312 Oct 2026
  6. RightTorino v Udinese2–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.57912 Oct 2026
  7. RightEyupspor v Goztepe0–4
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 47%Result Away winBrier 0.42912 Oct 2026
  8. RightAtalanta v Venezia3–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.46412 Oct 2026
  9. WrongReal Oviedo v Eibar3–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.83812 Oct 2026
  10. WrongBurgos v Granada0–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 50%Result Away winBrier 0.84012 Oct 2026
  11. RightReal Valladolid v Albacete5–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.31412 Oct 2026
  12. WrongPumas UNAM v Cruz Azul3–3
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.85411 Oct 2026
  13. WrongTalleres (Córdoba) v Independiente0–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.75811 Oct 2026
  14. WrongPachuca v Necaxa3–3
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 52%Result DrawBrier 0.91311 Oct 2026
  15. WrongAtlético de San Luis v Santos1–2
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.70711 Oct 2026
  16. RightSt. Louis CITY SC v LA Galaxy6–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 59%Result Home winBrier 0.25711 Oct 2026
  17. RightBahia v Mirassol1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.33511 Oct 2026
  18. RightRacing Club v Belgrano (Córdoba)0–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.56511 Oct 2026
  19. RightPalmeiras v Corinthians4–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.27311 Oct 2026
  20. WrongGrêmio v Internacional1–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.77711 Oct 2026
  21. RightFlamengo v Fluminense1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.27211 Oct 2026
  22. RightRosario Central v Independiente Rivadavia5–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50311 Oct 2026
  23. WrongPlatense v Argentinos Juniors1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 42%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.69211 Oct 2026
  24. RightArouca v Estrela1–0
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43411 Oct 2026
  25. RightAtlético-MG v Santos2–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.48811 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.