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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongUnion St.-Gilloise v OH Leuven1–1
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 76%Result DrawBrier 1.29611 Oct 2026
  2. WrongAl Fayha v Al Riyadh1–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.88711 Oct 2026
  3. RightFC Cologne v Borussia Mönchengladbach2–1
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 71%Result Home winBrier 0.12411 Oct 2026
  4. RightGaziantep FK v Çorum FK0–3
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.56811 Oct 2026
  5. WrongAberdeen v St Johnstone0–1
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.83011 Oct 2026
  6. RightNice v Strasbourg2–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.57111 Oct 2026
  7. WrongCatanzaro v Mantova1–3
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.63111 Oct 2026
  8. RightLecce v Bologna1–2
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.56611 Oct 2026
  9. RightLazio v Monza3–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.33911 Oct 2026
  10. WrongHull City v Everton2–2
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.70111 Oct 2026
  11. WrongCrystal Palace v Nottingham Forest3–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.94511 Oct 2026
  12. WrongTelstar v ADO Den Haag2–2
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.81211 Oct 2026
  13. RightPEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur0–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Away win at 53%Result Away winBrier 0.32511 Oct 2026
  14. WrongFC Andorra v Castellón1–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Away win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.89511 Oct 2026
  15. WrongElche v Celta Vigo0–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.80211 Oct 2026
  16. WrongStandard Liege v Royal Charleroi SC0–1
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.64311 Oct 2026
  17. WrongVfL Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld0–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.77111 Oct 2026
  18. RightSt. Pauli v Karlsruher SC2–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 48%Result Home winBrier 0.41211 Oct 2026
  19. RightHertha Berlin v SpVgg Greuther Fürth2–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.28011 Oct 2026
  20. RightMotherwell v Celtic0–2
    Previous modelScottish PremiershipWe said Away win at 51%Result Away winBrier 0.36511 Oct 2026
  21. RightSouthampton v Portsmouth1–0
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 60%Result Home winBrier 0.24311 Oct 2026
  22. WrongKonyaspor v Istanbul Basaksehir0–0
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.81010 Oct 2026
  23. WrongComo v AS Roma0–0
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.89910 Oct 2026
  24. RightFC Utrecht v Willem II3–1
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 40%Result Home winBrier 0.55110 Oct 2026
  25. WrongKawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus1–2
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 66%Result Away winBrier 1.20610 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.