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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightTokyo Verdy 1969 v Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–2
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Away win at 57%Result Away winBrier 0.28510 Oct 2026
  2. WrongMito Hollyhock v Shimizu S-Pulse1–2
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.82610 Oct 2026
  3. WrongJEF United Ichihara-Chiba v V-Varen Nagasaki1–1
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.82610 Oct 2026
  4. WrongAmérica v Monterrey1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 61%Result DrawBrier 1.03810 Oct 2026
  5. WrongLAFC v Vancouver Whitecaps1–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.82910 Oct 2026
  6. WrongColorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes1–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.83810 Oct 2026
  7. WrongAtlas v Guadalajara1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 45%Result DrawBrier 0.83610 Oct 2026
  8. RightRiver Plate v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 66%Result Home winBrier 0.18510 Oct 2026
  9. WrongSporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers3–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.88710 Oct 2026
  10. WrongMinnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo FC2–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.78310 Oct 2026
  11. RightAustin FC v Nashville SC1–4
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.50510 Oct 2026
  12. RightSão Paulo v Vitória2–1
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29010 Oct 2026
  13. WrongRed Bull New York v San Diego FC4–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Away win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.62210 Oct 2026
  14. RightPhiladelphia Union v Real Salt Lake2–1
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 66%Result Home winBrier 0.17510 Oct 2026
  15. RightOrlando City SC v Columbus Crew3–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39810 Oct 2026
  16. WrongNew England Revolution v Seattle Sounders FC0–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 52%Result Away winBrier 0.93810 Oct 2026
  17. RightInter Miami CF v D.C. United4–0
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.31710 Oct 2026
  18. RightCharlotte FC v FC Dallas3–2
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.44010 Oct 2026
  19. WrongAtlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati1–3
    Previous modelMlsWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.75610 Oct 2026
  20. RightQuerétaro v Atlante2–0
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.43510 Oct 2026
  21. WrongFC Juárez v Tijuana1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.83510 Oct 2026
  22. WrongTigre v Banfield1–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.87210 Oct 2026
  23. WrongVasco da Gama v Remo0–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 55%Result DrawBrier 0.93110 Oct 2026
  24. WrongCentral Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) v Estudiantes de La Plata2–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Away win at 35%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.64410 Oct 2026
  25. RightCasa Pia v Santa Clara0–1
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 61%Result Away winBrier 0.22710 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.