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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded518
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.591

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongCádiz v Sporting Gijón0–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.77011 Oct 2026
  2. WrongRacing Santander v Valencia2–2
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.87411 Oct 2026
  3. WrongTroyes v Marseille0–2
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.65911 Oct 2026
  4. WrongCagliari v Juventus1–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Away win at 43%Result DrawBrier 0.75711 Oct 2026
  5. RightAl Shabab v Al Taawoun3–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 42%Result Home winBrier 0.50311 Oct 2026
  6. WrongSan Lorenzo v Deportivo Riestra1–0
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Draw at 40%Tight — draw liveResult Home winBrier 0.56811 Oct 2026
  7. RightModena v Hellas Verona3–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.46211 Oct 2026
  8. WrongKV Mechelen v Sint-Truidense4–3
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.83211 Oct 2026
  9. RightBenfica v Vitória de Guimaraes2–0
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 61%Result Home winBrier 0.22711 Oct 2026
  10. RightKVC Westerlo v Antwerp5–1
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.36711 Oct 2026
  11. RightMallorca v Las Palmas3–1
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.34611 Oct 2026
  12. RightReal Betis v Osasuna5–2
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.32611 Oct 2026
  13. RightBesiktas v Kocaelispor2–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 58%Result Home winBrier 0.27111 Oct 2026
  14. WrongSassuolo v AC Milan1–1
    Previous modelSerie AWe said Home win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.81911 Oct 2026
  15. RightSC Freiburg v Schalke 042–1
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 71%Result Home winBrier 0.13211 Oct 2026
  16. RightLiverpool v Manchester City0–3
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.47811 Oct 2026
  17. WrongAbha v Al Faisaly0–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 41%Result Away winBrier 0.74211 Oct 2026
  18. RightStade Rennais v AJ Auxerre4–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 54%Result Home winBrier 0.32211 Oct 2026
  19. WrongPadova v Carrarese0–2
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 46%Result Away winBrier 0.88211 Oct 2026
  20. WrongExcelsior v FC Groningen1–5
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 42%Result Away winBrier 0.66711 Oct 2026
  21. RightRio Ave v C.D. Nacional3–2
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 39%Result Home winBrier 0.56011 Oct 2026
  22. RightAlmería v Leganés3–0
    Previous modelSegunda DivisionWe said Home win at 65%Result Home winBrier 0.18811 Oct 2026
  23. WrongReal Sociedad v Deportivo3–2
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.65511 Oct 2026
  24. WrongUnion St.-Gilloise v OH Leuven1–1
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 76%Result DrawBrier 1.29611 Oct 2026
  25. WrongAl Fayha v Al Riyadh1–1
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 48%Result DrawBrier 0.88711 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.