Skip to main content

Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. WrongRayo Vallecano v Athletic Club0–0
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.81610 Oct 2026
  2. RightPlymouth Argyle v AFC Wimbledon2–1
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Home win at 51%Result Home winBrier 0.35510 Oct 2026
  3. RightNotts County v Oxford United1–2
    Previous modelLeague OneWe said Away win at 44%Result Away winBrier 0.46710 Oct 2026
  4. WrongWest Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City0–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.78210 Oct 2026
  5. RightSwansea City v Norwich City2–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 56%Result Home winBrier 0.29410 Oct 2026
  6. WrongCharlton Athletic v Bristol City1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 40%Result DrawBrier 0.76010 Oct 2026
  7. RightArsenal v Leeds United2–1
    Previous modelPremier LeagueWe said Home win at 50%Result Home winBrier 0.38310 Oct 2026
  8. WrongVfL Osnabruck v Dynamo Dresden1–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 46%Result DrawBrier 0.90510 Oct 2026
  9. WrongSV Darmstadt 98 v Energie Cottbus3–1
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Away win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.69110 Oct 2026
  10. Right1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 963–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.39010 Oct 2026
  11. WrongGenclerbirligi v Amed SFK2–2
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Away win at 42%Result DrawBrier 0.8319 Oct 2026
  12. RightKyoto Sanga v Machida Zelvia0–1
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Away win at 57%Result Away winBrier 0.2749 Oct 2026
  13. RightFC Tokyo v Urawa Red Diamonds3–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.3919 Oct 2026
  14. RightAvispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama2–1
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 36%Result Home winBrier 0.6149 Oct 2026
  15. WrongCerezo Osaka v Yokohama F. Marinos0–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Away win at 35%Result DrawBrier 0.7409 Oct 2026
  16. WrongTigres UANL v Toluca3–2
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Away win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.6529 Oct 2026
  17. WrongPuebla v León1–1
    Previous modelLiga MxWe said Home win at 38%Result DrawBrier 0.7529 Oct 2026
  18. WrongUnión (Santa Fe) v Defensa y Justicia0–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 45%Result Away winBrier 0.7549 Oct 2026
  19. WrongInstituto (Córdoba) v Boca Juniors2–2
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 39%Result DrawBrier 0.7659 Oct 2026
  20. WrongGimnasia La Plata v Atlético Tucumán1–1
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 44%Result DrawBrier 0.7689 Oct 2026
  21. RightBraga v Sporting CP1–3
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Away win at 37%Result Away winBrier 0.6039 Oct 2026
  22. WrongMálaga v Espanyol1–1
    Previous modelLa LigaWe said Away win at 41%Result DrawBrier 0.7769 Oct 2026
  23. WrongWest Ham United v Queens Park Rangers1–1
    Previous modelChampionshipWe said Home win at 56%Result DrawBrier 0.9589 Oct 2026
  24. WrongWaasland-Beveren v Lommel SK1–3
    Previous modelBelgian Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 57%Result Away winBrier 1.0749 Oct 2026
  25. RightLens v Lyon2–1
    Previous modelLigue 1We said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.4649 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.