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Match Forecast · Public record

All our calls

Every forecast we’ve published and graded — the ones we got right and the ones we got wrong. Bad forecasts are content, not embarrassment.

Calls graded520
Top pick right54%
Mean Brier0.592

These stats cover the current model only. The list also keeps 909 graded calls from the previous model (dc-v1.15), tagged “Previous model” — they don’t count towards the current model’s record.

  1. RightUS Avellino v Sampdoria4–1
    Previous modelSerie BWe said Home win at 53%Result Home winBrier 0.3369 Oct 2026
  2. WrongBorussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen2–2
    Previous modelBundesligaWe said Home win at 64%Result DrawBrier 1.0279 Oct 2026
  3. RightAl Nassr v Al Diriyah3–0
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Home win at 44%Result Home winBrier 0.4699 Oct 2026
  4. RightPSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen2–0
    Previous modelEredivisieWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3519 Oct 2026
  5. WrongSochaux v Boulogne1–1
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 40%Tight — draw liveResult DrawBrier 0.6349 Oct 2026
  6. RightPau v Stade Laval3–2
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.4439 Oct 2026
  7. RightMontpellier v Grenoble2–0
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.4919 Oct 2026
  8. WrongDunkerque v Annecy0–1
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 43%Result Away winBrier 0.7429 Oct 2026
  9. RightAS Nancy Lorraine v Guingamp1–0
    Previous modelLigue 2We said Home win at 45%Result Home winBrier 0.4489 Oct 2026
  10. WrongMoreirense v Gil Vicente0–1
    Previous modelPrimeira LigaWe said Home win at 40%Result Away winBrier 0.7209 Oct 2026
  11. WrongAldosivi v Sarmiento (Junín)1–3
    Previous modelArgentine PrimeraWe said Home win at 39%Tight — draw liveResult Away winBrier 0.7159 Oct 2026
  12. RightGalatasaray v Kasimpasa3–1
    Previous modelTurkish Super LigWe said Home win at 43%Result Home winBrier 0.4909 Oct 2026
  13. RightTSV Eintracht Braunschweig v Holstein Kiel1–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 46%Result Home winBrier 0.4469 Oct 2026
  14. Wrong1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v Kaiserslautern0–0
    Previous modelBundesliga 2We said Home win at 52%Result DrawBrier 0.9029 Oct 2026
  15. RightAl Fateh v Al Ahli0–4
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.5599 Oct 2026
  16. RightAl Kholood v Al Qadsiah0–5
    Previous modelSaudi Pro LeagueWe said Away win at 39%Result Away winBrier 0.5609 Oct 2026
  17. RightKashiwa Reysol v Vissel Kobe4–2
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 38%Result Home winBrier 0.5828 Oct 2026
  18. RightKashima Antlers v Gamba Osaka2–0
    Previous modelJ1 LeagueWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.3088 Oct 2026
  19. RightPalmeiras v Bahia1–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 52%Result Home winBrier 0.3438 Oct 2026
  20. RightFluminense v Coritiba4–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 57%Result Home winBrier 0.2798 Oct 2026
  21. WrongAthletico-PR v Atlético-MG2–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 49%Result DrawBrier 0.8158 Oct 2026
  22. WrongSantos v Flamengo2–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Away win at 51%Result DrawBrier 0.8888 Oct 2026
  23. RightCruzeiro v São Paulo2–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 55%Result Home winBrier 0.3117 Oct 2026
  24. WrongBotafogo v Vasco da Gama1–2
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 48%Result Away winBrier 0.8267 Oct 2026
  25. RightVitória v Chapecoense4–0
    Previous modelBrazil Serie AWe said Home win at 49%Result Home winBrier 0.3967 Oct 2026

Grading uses the same helpers as the monthly calibration summary, so this list can never disagree with it. Brier score measures how far the whole probability set sat from the result — a hedged wrong call costs less than a confident one.